How Goshen Voted: Red Town, Blue State

Data released by the Goshen election moderator on election night, November 5^th, contained few surprises for a town that typically votes in the majority for Republican candidates.

Candidate                                                       Goshen                              Statewide                      
√Donald Trump (R)                   1,154 votes      (54.4%)                           42.0%
Kamala Harris (D)                       910                  (42.9%)                           56.3%
3rd-parties                                  31                     (1.4%)                             0.8%   

This is nearly the inverse of the statewide results of 56.3% for Harris and 42.0% for Trump, but with just over 2100 votes out of a total exceeding 1.7 million, Goshen doesn’t have much impact on statewide elections. Nearly identical results were obtained for the US Senate race.

Candidate                                                       Goshen                            Statewide
√Chris Murphy (D)                    919                      (44.4%)                      58.4%
Matt Corey (R)                           1126                     (54.4%)                      39.9%
Others                                        25                          (1.2%)

In the US House District 5 race, a rematch between incumbent Jahana Hayes (D) and former State Senator George Logan (R) considered to be one of the most competitive in the nation, Logan’s numbers were similar to Trump’s and Hayes’ were similar to Harris’. When the two faced each other in 2022, Hayes won by just over 2000 votes. This year the margin was more than 22,000, suggesting a possible “coattails” benefit for Hayes with Harris at the top of the ticket.

Candidate                                                       Goshen                          District-wide
√Jahana Hayes (D)                  905                      (43.4%)                     53.4%
George Logan (R)                     1179                    (56.8%)                     46.6%

Goshen’s impact on more localized races was greater, however. In a tight race for District 30 State Senator, Goshen’s 444 vote lead for Stephen Harding represented a significant portion of his roughly 4,600 vote margin of victory. With 1253 votes, Harding garnered a higher count than any other candidate on the Goshen ballot.

Candidate                                                       Goshen                        District-wide*
Justin Potter (D)                       809                      (39.2%)                    45.5%
√Stephen Harding (R)            1253                    (60.7%)                    54.5%

*Data with 90% of ballots reported

Based on analysis of Goshen’s early and absentee ballots, which favored the Democratic Presidential and US Senate candidates by roughly 54.5% to 45.5%, Harding appears to have garnered a higher level of bipartisan support than other Republicans. He was the only Republican to lead in early and absentee voting, garnering 51.8% of those votes. Seen by many as a pragmatic moderate, Harding has actively supported non-partisan local efforts to assist the Woodridge Lake Sewer District and the Woodridge Lake Property Owners’ Association in their respective struggles with the Department of Energy and Environmental Protection (DEEP) bureaucracy.

A 385-vote advantage for Goshen Town Clerk Barbara Breor (R) in the State House District 64 race was insufficient to overturn strong majority support for incumbent Maria Horn (D), however.

Candidate                                                Goshen                            District-wide
√Maria Horn (D)           865                          (41.6%)                        64.5%
Barbara Breor (R)         1214                        (58.4%)                        35.5%